On June 21, 2023, the 172nd General Assembly of the International Exhibitions Bureau (Bureau International des Expositions, BIE) convened in France to elect the host for Expo 2027/2028. After four rounds, Serbia won the right to host Expo 2027 Belgrade with 81 votes out of 179 member countries, beating second place Malaga, Spain; third place Minnesota, United States; fourth place Phuket, Thailand; and fifth place Bariloche, Argentina.
Expos, often seen as extravagant mega-events, prompt the question: Why do countries compete so fervently to host them? Expos are massive public education projects that boost the host country’s national economy by introducing the domestic population to foreign perspectives and ideas that inspire innovation. Expos also help the domestic population understand its role and potential on an international scale.
Unlike other mega-events like the FIFA Men’s World Cup™ and the Summer Olympic Games, selecting a city to host an Expo primarily involves traditional diplomacy. The BIE is an intergovernmental organization, which national governments join by ratifying the Convention relating to International Exhibitions of 1928. Duly accredited delegates represent each country’s government at the BIE. On the contrary, the Fédération Internationale de Football Association (FIFA) and the International Olympic Committee (IOC) are private organizations. FIFA has 211 member associations, which are representatives of FIFA in their respective jurisdiction around the world, and the IOC’s 99 members are “natural persons, [who] are representatives of the [IOC] in their respective countries.” Private entities determine the host countries and cities of FIFA and IOC events. An assembly of national governments determines host cities for Expos.
Through their BIE membership, national governments have direct influence over which country’s population stands to benefit from hosting this massive public education event. Votes to elect Expo host cities are usually decided by each member country at the ministry of foreign affairs level, with each member country having one vote at the BIE General Assembly. The alignment and divergence of national interests among bidding and voting countries are often addressed through diplomatic negotiations in the months preceding the General Assembly.
The Expo 2027/2028 vote: Insights for countries aiming to host an Expo
A brief analysis of the vote distribution for Expo 2027/2028 at the BIE 172nd General Assembly offers some lessons for the diplomatic efforts of countries bidding to host future Expos.
At the time of the vote, the BIE counted 179 member countries, yet 39 of them did not vote in the initial round—equivalent to 22% of BIE membership. A partial explanation is that, according to the Convention relating to International Exhibitions, countries falling behind in their annual membership fees forfeit their voting rights. However, 14 of those 39 countries did vote in the second round. Something failed in the diplomatic negotiations of five bidding countries that none of them could secure the first-round vote of 14 full-right member countries attending the session.
On November 28, 2023, the 173rd General Assembly of the BIE will elect the host for Expo 2030. There is limited time for bidding countries to persuade 25 member nations to settle their dues, attend, and cast their votes. This endeavor seems possible, especially in a city like Paris, which boasts numerous permanent diplomatic representations. While Spain, the U.S., Thailand, and Argentina have missed their opportunity, securing those 25 votes could be pivotal for countries like Italy, Saudi Arabia, or South Korea, potentially marking the difference between hosting Expo 2030 and merely participating.
Lessons for the U.S.
The experience at the 172nd BIE General Assembly might discourage future U.S. efforts to host an Expo. However, recent years have marked a significant uptick in the U.S.'s engagement with Expos. Following notable absences at Expos 2000 in Hannover and 2008 in Zaragoza, the U.S. has shown a renewed commitment to improving the quality and institutional structure of its Expo participation. Minnesota's bids for Expos 2023 and 2027 catalyzed the establishment of an Expo Unit within the Department of State and led to the renewal of U.S. membership in the BIE. Budget allocations for U.S. pavilions have been troublesome in Expos after 1992 Seville, but Congress has ultimately approved $25 million for the U.S. participation at Expo 2025 Osaka.
The White House and the Department of State's involvement in supporting the latest Minnesota bid was commendable, with messages from President Joe Biden and Secretary of State Antony Blinken, and the participation of Undersecretary of State for Public Diplomacy and Public Affairs Liz Allen at the BIE General Assembly. However, these efforts are not enough to bring the largest public diplomacy event to the U.S. Despite all diplomatic efforts, the votes for the U.S. Expo 2027 bid began with 19 votes and never reached more than 23. The U.S. received fewer votes for Expo 2027 than for Expo 2023, notwithstanding lessons learned, increased efforts, improved coordination, and the expansion of BIE membership.
Based on recent experiences, it becomes evident that any future efforts to host an Expo in the U.S. should be contingent on three fundamental assurances:
1. The BIE adopting an open voting system
The BIE employs a secret vote system where countries can promise a vote to more than one bidding country virtually without repercussions. Furthermore, it is unclear whether there are any mechanisms to impede delegates from voting differently than instructed by their own government. The U.S. needs to engage more actively as a member country to promote a more transparent voting process in the BIE.
2. Designating an experienced ambassador as Presidential Special Envoy to negotiate votes
While strategies to secure votes for Expos often remain confidential, the late Spanish ambassador José Manuel Paz Agüeras shared invaluable insights in his book Así se ganó la Expo: La batalla diplomática por Expo Zaragoza 2008 (This Is How the Expo Was Won: The Diplomatic Battle for Expo Zaragoza 2008). To effectively influence the ministry of foreign affairs in each BIE member country, Spain appointed a seasoned career diplomat to spearhead the campaign for Expo 2008 (Paz, p. 21), mirroring the successful approach used for Expo 1992 Seville (Paz, p. 24). Ambassador Paz Agüeras played a crucial role with his extensive diplomatic network and familiarity with high-level protocols. Nowadays, strong bids display close coordination between a country’s foreign ministry, major corporations, and public figures. The U.S. cannot approach an Expo bid with less than that, and the figure of Presidential Special Envoy would provide additional authority and power to the position.
3. The Department of State finding a strategy to compete with countries involved in vote-trading
Vote-trading (vote-buying and logrolling) is a common practice in the international arena. According to Amb. Paz Agüeras, some Expo-bidding countries resort to vote-trading (Paz, pp. 106-107), which presumably is not the tradition of the U.S. Department of State (a FOIA request to the Department of State on this issue is pending an answer). If other nations are offering incentives in exchange for votes and the U.S. refrains from doing so, then the U.S. must employ innovative strategies to level the playing field and secure a winning bid.
Bringing the Largest Public Diplomacy Event Back to the United States
Based on the BIE website, the U.S. has hosted 11 Expos since 1851—more than any other country. Not too long ago, the U.S. was so deeply involved in hosting Expos, that several were scheduled consecutively: Expo 1962 Seattle, Expo 1968 San Antonio, Expo 1974 Spokane, Expo 1981 Los Angeles (which was unanimously awarded by the BIE but canceled by the U.S.), Expo 1982 Knoxville, and Expo 1984 New Orleans.
As the U.S. reflects on its past and future endeavors in hosting Expos, it becomes evident that the path forward requires resolute dedication, strategic diplomacy, and innovative approaches. Expos hold the power to influence the world's future, and the U.S. has the potential to step up and inaugurate a fresh era of public diplomacy, innovation, and economic progress through these global mega-events.
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